worried inflation here are reasons optimism

Here are two possibilities for the next few months, and the evidence that does - or doesn’t - support each scenario. It’s not a clear story, and there are very different ways to present the data. Even though it probably won’t make anyone more certain about what happens next, it’s worth trying to understand what the indicators are saying when they’re taken together. Inflation, for example, hadn’t been a serious issue for nearly four decades - but now it’s framing the way everyone is thinking and talking about the economy. Let’s not forget that economists are bad at predicting recessions, and the economy is particularly weird right now. The reality is that everyone is guessing. Who isn’t confused? Economic signals are pointing in different directions, and with every new data release comes a new batch of headlines declaring that our odds of heading into a recession are higher or lower than they were before. Except, wait: That jobs report was too good, which means that the Fed will hike rates even higher - and economic pain is coming. So maybe we’re heading for the fabled “ soft landing” as the Federal Reserve tries to curb inflation. Except, wait: The latest jobs report indicates that the labor market is healthier than it’s been in years. Inflation isn’t under control, and we’re heading for a recession. It’s hard to make sense of the often-conflicting economic data we’ve been seeing recently.

Worried inflation here are reasons optimism